Portfolio Optimization

The Modern Portfolio Theory is based on the assumptions that investment returns follow a normal distribution and the correlations among asset classes are fixed. Both of these assumptions proved to be wrong but no reliable replacements have been proposed.

Our solution is based on two tools, the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and the Empirical Statistical Distribution (ESD). The ICA is used to determine combinations of investments with the highest degree of independence to create a solid portfolio capable to respond well to crisis. The ESD is used to maximize the return versus risk ratio based on the observation that the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) has an average shifted towards the right for a more profitable investment and has a narrower shape for a less risky investment.